Egypt’s first free prez poll will be a lead into the unknown-and not just in terms of who will be elected.Egypt’s first free president election has been a long time coming. Ever science the 1952 revolution and the overthrow the monarchy its leaders have come to power by military coup or in carefully staged polls whose results are always clear long before any ballots were cast.Now genuine contest with an unknown outcome Is being fought as rallies on billboards and leaflets from aswan to Zagazig. Chiff-hanging drama bitter and high stakes have combined into a riveting story that is being closely watched as the populous and formerly the most influential country in the Arab world prepares to move civilian leadership.An unprecedented live TV debate between the frontrunners Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim About Fotouh was remarkable for their sparring about healthcare and campaign financing rather than for any political virtuosity or verbal pyrotechnics.Hosni Mubarak – forced to step last down Feb. after 30 years in office would never have locked horns with even the tow token opposition candidates who never allowed to challenge him in 2005.

Having played a pioneering role in the Arab spring Egypt’s democracy is coming to life amid bouts of violence and that ever itself could yet be postponed. This is just one big what blogger issandr El Amrani calls “an almost comically uncertain political transition.”Not least in the question of what powers the president will have since a new post revolution with his job description has yet to be written. Linked to that is position of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces guardians of the state since Mubarak quit.

Field marshal Mohamed Hussein tantawi and his colleagues have pledges to step down by july I after a probable round in mid-june between the tow candidates who can out the top next week.What roles the generals will play is one of the biggest issues facing Egypt.Strikingly all the leading candidates have so far been deferential in their statements on the military and their jealously guarded status. That suggest they will continue to wield considerable powers behind the scene who ever ends up as president.

Excitement seems to be greater for the presidential race than for the parliamentary elections which produce a sweeping majority for the islamists who were kept out of power under mubarak 40% for the Muslim brotherhood and another 25% for hardline Salafi fundamentalists.

That results say commentator Rami Khouri reflected the previous decades of the state dominance or even oppression including large-scale theft and corruption Parliament’s performance has been underwhelming not least because the military has clipped its wings. So,18 months after Tahrir Square the presidential battle is seen by many as the one that matters a choice between stability and uncertainty between head and heart.

Moussa Mubarak former foreign minister comes close to the pejorative description of being a “fuloul” of the old regime he left it in 2001 to head the Arab League where h acquired global recognition and a claim to statesmanship he uses to taunt his rivals as inexperienced amateurs.

At 75,he is the oldest candidates an advantage when terms smack of the bad old days “No one who takes office now will be given a second chance because expectation are so high” says the journalists Abdullah Hamouda. About fotouh an independent Islamist who broke away from the Muslim brotherhood to run to his own has proved popular and dignified stressing that he seeking to appeal to “all Egyptians”. Supporters range from liberals suspicious of any “regime remnants” to Salafists whose own candidate was disqualified.

The brotherhood still by far the best organized and discipline political force in Egypt is running Mohamed Morsi, an figure whose main problem is countering the impression of cynical opportunism when when he organized reversed its previous decision not to fields a candidates especially after doing so well in the parliament elections. Observers  predict that one likely outcome is the brotherhood ordering its members to back Moussa.

Given the dominance of Islamist MPs experts say the new constitution looks likely to shifts from a powerful presidency to a French style system where executive power is split between an electes president and a prime minister chosen by parliament. Under different scenarios Khairat al-Shater the brotherhood’s disqualified presidential candidates, could well end up in that job.